The stock market extended its winning streak last week, with all three major indices posting modest gains amid mixed corporate earnings and Federal Reserve signals. The S&P 500 rose 0.71%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.94%, and the Dow Jones added 0.73%, marking the third consecutive week of gains as investors navigated competing narratives of economic resilience and uncertainty.

After U.S. and Chinese leaders unveiled a preliminary trade framework earlier in the week, the White House announced that the U.S. would reduce certain tariffs on China, while Beijing would suspend its newly announced rare-earth export controls for one year and commit to purchasing at least 25 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans annually (with 12 million metric tons by January 2026). Markets had already rallied earlier in the week to fresh record highs on anticipation of the deal and strong earnings.

However, the rally faced headwinds when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 30th, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered enthusiasm by cautioning that December’s rate cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” signaling a potential pause in the easing cycle. Powell stated that the government shutdown curtailed the publication of key federal statistics, reducing the amount of current data available to the Fed and complicating policy assessment.

Technology earnings painted a mixed picture as five of the “Magnificent Seven” reported results. Meta plunged 11% after announcing significant capital expenditure acceleration in 2026 for artificial intelligence competition. Microsoft, similarly disappointed with lower cloud gross margins amid heavier AI investment. Conversely, Alphabet impressed with strong Google cloud growth, while Amazon shares soared nearly 12% following stellar AWS cloud results. Overall, corporate earnings exceeded expectations with ~83% of S&P 500 companies beating estimates.​

Looking ahead to the week, investors will shift focus to critical economic indicators as the earnings calendar lightens. Monday brings ISM Manufacturing PMI data, while Wednesday offers the ADP employment report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. With the government shutdown extended and December Fed policy uncertain, volatility may persist as markets navigate reduced data visibility.

How This Impacts You

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​Note: Economic data releases remain on hold because of the government shutdown and any that are tentative are not shown here.

📅 Monday, Nov 3rd

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is expected to show a modest improvement from September’s reading of 49.1, which reflected ongoing contraction in the sector. Even if the index inches higher, it would remain below the critical 50 threshold that separates growth from decline, signaling that manufacturing activity is still under pressure. Analysts often focus on five key subindices: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories, to get a clearer picture of which areas are stabilizing and which are dragging.
  
  A move closer to 50 could suggest that demand is recovering and that the worst of the slowdown might be over, but any drop below 49.1 would likely intensify concerns about a broader economic downturn, especially with manufacturing acting as a leading indicator. The employment component will be particularly important this month. Continued weakness here could signal softening in the overall labor market.

📅 Wednesday, Nov 5th

• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: The upcoming ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is anticipated to show an increase of 28K jobs for the month, reversing last month’s decline of 32K. This turnaround would suggest renewed strength in private sector hiring after a brief contraction, and a positive print may encourage hopes for economic resilience.
  
  Market participants should assess whether the actual figure meets or exceeds the 28K forecast, as a substantial beat could increase expectations for continued labor market strength and potentially influence interest rate policy considerations. Conversely, another negative or weaker-than-expected result might amplify concerns over slowing employment trends and growth risks. Traders will closely watch for sector-level data and any revisions to prior months, as these details can impact market sentiment and prompt volatility across markets.

• ISM Services PMI: The upcoming ISM Services PMI report will measure whether the U.S. services sector is expanding or contracting, with recent forecasts pointing to a reading around 50.8, slightly above the previous month’s 50.0. Since any figure above 50 indicates growth, this would signal a modest rebound after flat activity. Given that services account for more than two-thirds of U.S. GDP, this index is closely watched as a gauge of economic momentum and potential shifts in monetary policy.
  
  Market participants often focus on key subindices within the report, including New Orders, Business Activity, and Employment. Weakness in any of these areas could indicate softening demand and weigh on market sentiment. The Prices Paid Index will also draw attention, as elevated readings there tend to reflect input cost pressures and may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer. A reading well above expectations could lift risk appetite and support equities and cyclical sectors. On the other hand, a drop below 50 would raise concerns about broader economic weakness.

💼 The upcoming week marks a key phase in earnings season, with a broad mix of companies across sectors set to report their quarterly results.

📅 Monday, Nov 3rd

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Palantir will announce its Q3 2025 results, with analysts expecting the data-software maker to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.17 (representing 70% year-over-year growth) and total revenue of approximately $1.09 billion (50.2% year-over-year growth). The company’s stunning ~160% year-to-date share performance has created an exceptionally high bar for earnings.
  
  Market participants should closely monitor the performance of the company’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) adoption in the U.S. commercial segment, which surged 93% year-over-year in the prior quarter to $306 million. Revenue breakdown is critical: analysts anticipate government revenue of $602.53 million (47.6% growth year-over-year) and commercial revenue of $493.66 million (56% growth year-over-year), with particular scrutiny on whether the commercial segment can sustain its acceleration.
  
  Beyond the top-line figures, management’s forward guidance will be paramount, specifically whether the company maintains its 45% full-year revenue growth guidance despite potential headwinds from the U.S. government shutdown and elevated expenses anticipated from hiring season, while also confirming adjusted operating margins remain near the $493-$497 million range that management previously guided for Q3.

📅 Tuesday, Nov 4th

• Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI): Super Micro Computer is scheduled to report fiscal Q1 2026, with analysts expecting significant earnings pressure and challenging revenue dynamics that investors will closely scrutinize. Consensus analyst estimates call for earnings per share of ~$0.37, representing a 50% decline year-over-year from the prior year’s $0.75 EPS, reflecting substantial margin compression across the company’s AI server portfolio. Revenue is expected to reach approximately $5.83 billion, representing a 2% year-over-year decline from $5.95 billion, signaling a deceleration in growth momentum compared to the company’s historical double-digit expansion rates.
  
  Market participants should monitor gross margin trends, which have declined to approximately 9.6% to 9.7% in recent quarters, down from 11.3% in the same quarter a year earlier, reflecting higher component costs, tariff exposure, and an unfavorable product mix, even as demand for NVIDIA-based AI GPU platforms remains strong.
  
  Key areas of focus include management’s commentary on tariff-related cost pressures, confirmation of full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of at least $33 billion, and the company’s ability to sustain its leadership in AI infrastructure as NVIDIA’s next-generation Blackwell GPUs enter broader availability. AI systems accounted for more than 70% of Supermicro’s Q4 2025 revenue, underscoring their central role in the company’s growth strategy.

• Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD): AMD reports its Q3 2025 earnings with Wall Street analysts expecting revenue of $8.76 billion (representing 28% year-over-year growth) and adjusted earnings per share of $1.17 (up approximately 27% from the prior year). The company guided Q3 revenue to a range of $8.4 billion to $9.0 billion, and investors should closely monitor the ramp of the MI350 and MI355X AI accelerators in the data center segment, which CEO Lisa Su identified as a critical growth driver powering the higher guidance.
  
  AMD’s adjusted gross margin is projected at approximately 54% for Q3, and traders should watch whether the company can sustain profitability despite ongoing U.S. export restrictions on AI chips to China, which excludes any MI308 revenue from current guidance. The company’s stock has already surged 112% year-to-date on strong data center demand and new AI partnerships with OpenAI and Oracle. Market participants should focus on sequential data center revenue growth, guidance for Q4 and 2026, the pace of MI355X adoption among hyperscalers, and any commentary on China-related AI chip sales as export license applications are under review.

📅 Wednesday, Nov 5th

• QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM): Qualcomm is set to report its Q4 and fiscal 2025 results. Wall Street expects the chipmaker to report non-GAAP EPS of $2.87, representing a 6.7% year-over-year increase, with revenues projected to reach $10.75 billion, up 4.9% from the year-ago quarter.
  
  Market participants should watch Qualcomm’s commentary on the QCT Handsets segment. Qualcomm’s filings note that Apple is developing its own modem products following Apple’s acquisition of Intel’s modem assets, which could reduce Apple’s future purchases from Qualcomm. Qualcomm also highlights its business concentration in China as a risk factor.
  
  The diversification narrative will be critical, as the company is aggressively expanding its automotive and IoT segments, with automotive setting record revenues of $984 million in Q3 (up 21% year-over-year) and IoT revenues climbing 24% year-over-year, positioning these faster-growing segments as offsets to smartphone market headwinds. Additionally, traders should focus on management’s guidance and execution trajectory for the company’s recently announced AI data center inference chips (AI200 and AI250), which represent Qualcomm’s strategic push into the high-growth data center market and could attract key hyperscaler customers seeking alternatives to Nvidia.

📅 Thursday, Nov 6th

• The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD): The Trade Desk is set to report its Q3 2025 results, with consensus estimates calling for revenue of about $719 million, roughly 14.5% higher year-over-year. Earnings are expected to come in around $0.20 per share (non-GAAP), down about 50% from the $0.41 reported in Q3 2024.
  
  Market participants should watch for management’s commentary on Connected TV (CTV) and retail media, which the company identified as key growth areas in recent quarters. The company continues to highlight momentum in CTV and retail media through new partnerships and platform progress. Key metrics to follow include operating and adjusted EBITDA margin trends and any updates on Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) partnerships and integrations, which remain central to the company’s open internet strategy. The company provides guidance only for the next quarter, with Q3 2025 revenue of at least $717 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $277 million. Management’s commentary on growth sustainability and competitive positioning in digital advertising will be a focal point for the market.

We hope this helps and happy trading!

– Trade and Travel Team