The stock market endured significant volatility last week with major indices plunging to multi-week lows as investors reacted to escalating trade tensions.

The downturn followed President Donald Trump’s confirmation that 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4, alongside an incremental 10% tariff on Chinese goods, raising the total duty on Chinese imports to 20%. These measures amplified fears of a renewed global trade war, triggering a broad-based selloff.

Trump justified the tariffs as necessary to combat drug trafficking, particularly the inflow of fentanyl. However, economists warned of inflationary risks and potential disruptions to North American supply chains, especially in the automotive sector. Meanwhile, China’s vow to retaliate further clouded the outlook for global trade.

Over the past week, the SPY (S&P 500) declined 0.96%, driven by a broad sell-off, particularly in tech stocks. The QQQ (NASDAQ) saw a steeper drop of 3.4% as major tech companies like Nvidia and Tesla faced huge declines. In contrast, the DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) bucked the trend, rising 0.97% and demonstrating resilience amid the market’s volatility.

The upcoming week is a big one for jobs, with ADP jobs data on Wednesday, Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and Average Hourly Earnings, the Unemployment Rate, and the closely watched Non-Farm Payrolls, along with Fed Chair Powell’s expected speech on Friday.

📅 Monday, Mar 3rd

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: The ISM Manufacturing PMI report is a critical economic indicator that investors and traders will scrutinize to gauge the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector, with the latest January reading at 50.9 signaling expansion after 26 months of contraction. They should watch for whether the PMI remains above 50. Key sub-indexes to monitor include New Orders (last at 55.1) and Production (last at 52.5), as sustained strength above 50 in these areas could indicate robust demand and output, bolstering bullish outlooks for stocks and the U.S. dollar.

📅 Wednesday, Mar 5th

• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report will offer investors and traders an early read on U.S. private-sector job growth for February, after January’s 183,000 job gain surpassed its 148,000 forecast. We should watch whether the report beats or misses the expected 144,000 jobs, as a stronger result could reinforce labor market resilience, nudging the Federal Reserve toward sustained higher rates, while a shortfall might support rate-cut hopes.

• ISM Services PMI: The upcoming report is expected to show a reading of around 53.0, slightly up from January’s actual 52.8, signaling continued expansion in the U.S. services sector above the critical 50 threshold. Investors should watch key sub-indexes like Business Activity (54.5 in January) and Employment (52.3 in January), as a drop below 50 or weaker-than-expected figures could indicate a slowdown, potentially unsettling markets and pressuring the U.S. dollar.

📅 Thursday, Mar 6th

• Unemployment Claims: The Unemployment Claims report will detail initial jobless claims following the latest reported figure of 242,000, the highest in three months. Investors and traders should watch for whether claims drop below the recent four-week average of 224,000, as a decline could indicate sustained labor market stability, potentially supporting equity markets, while a rise above 250,000 might signal accelerating layoffs and pressure the Federal Reserve to reconsider rate policies.

📅 Friday, Mar 7th

• Average Hourly Earnings m/m: The report, released with the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data, will provide insight into wage growth trends following January’s 0.5% increase, which exceeded the expected 0.3%. Investors and traders should watch whether the m/m figure surpasses the anticipated 0.3% again, as a higher-than-expected rise could intensify inflation concerns. They should also monitor the year-over-year rate, which last at 4.1% compared to January’s forecast of 3.9%, since persistent wage growth above 4% could signal sustained inflationary pressures.

• Non-Farm Employment Change: The upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change report will offer a key snapshot of job growth following January’s 143,000 increase, with forecasts estimating a rise of 156,000 jobs. Investors and traders should watch whether the actual figure deviates significantly from this consensus, as a strong beat above 200,000 could bolster expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy.

• Unemployment Rate: The U.S. Unemployment Rate report will provide a critical update on labor market health, with January’s rate at 4.0% and forecasts anticipating it to hold steady at 4.0% for February. Investors should also monitor the participation rate, last at 62.6%, since a significant change could skew the unemployment figure and alter perceptions of labor force engagement.

• Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on Friday, with markets scrutinizing his views on the federal funds rate and the outlook for monetary policy. Investors and traders should listen for Powell’s assessment of inflation, which held at 3% in January 2025—above the 2% target—as well as labor market resilience, with unemployment at 4.0%. While Goldman Sachs projects 75 basis points of cuts in 2025, Powell has cautioned that the Fed is ‘in no rush’ to take action, particularly after January’s hotter-than-expected CPI data. Dovish or hawkish signals could sway the markets, especially given recent concerns over economic slowdown.

Here are some stocks to watch that are reporting earnings this week:

📅 Tuesday, Mar 4th

• Target (TGT): As Target Corporation prepares to release its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, investors and analysts are keenly focused on several critical factors that will shape the retail giant’s financial trajectory. The company’s performance during the crucial holiday season, its ongoing digital transformation through same-day fulfillment services, and its ability to manage persistent margin pressures form the core narrative of this earnings cycle. With analysts projecting an EPS of $2.25, representing a year-over-year decline of 24.49% from Q4 2023’s $2.98, Target faces heightened scrutiny about its operational strategies in a challenging retail environment.

• AutoZone (AZO): As AutoZone approaches its earnings release, investors are evaluating whether strategic investments in commercial sales and inventory efficiency initiatives can offset macroeconomic pressures. The company reported mixed results in its last report, with revenue rising to 2.1% YoY to $4.28B, but diluted EPS saw a marginal decline to $32.52 vs. $32.55 YoY. Analysts are now scrutinizing AutoZone’s ability to maintain industry-leading gross margins while scaling its commercial (DIFM – Do It For Me) segment.

• CrowdStrike (CRWD): CrowdStrike is set to release its latest earnings report. The company has demonstrated strong growth, surpassing $4 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) marking a significant milestone in its expansion as a leading cybersecurity provider. Investors will closely watch CrowdStrike’s Q4 performance, focusing on continued ARR growth, cash flow updates, and forward guidance, as these metrics will indicate the company’s strategic resilience and future momentum in the cybersecurity sector.

📅 Wednesday, Mar 5th

• MongoDB (MDB): MongoDB is set to report its latest earnings with expected EPS at $0.67, exceeding analyst expectations. Following a strong performance the previous quarter where revenue grew 22.28% year-over-year to $529.4 million, investors will focus on continued growth in MongoDB Atlas, which accounted for 68% of Q3 revenue, and progress toward GAAP profitability. With a customer base now exceeding 52,600, MongoDB’s strategic momentum is underscored by its non-GAAP profitability and strong customer growth, despite ongoing GAAP losses.

📅 Thursday, Mar 6th

• Broadcom (AVGO): Broadcom’s latest earnings report is expected to show revenue of $14.59 billion, reflecting a 21.98% year-over-year increase. Key growth areas include a significant rise in AI-related revenue, projected to increase by 65% to $3.8 billion, driven by strong demand in the semiconductor and infrastructure software sectors. Investors will also be watching for updates on strategic partnerships and new product developments, following a notable surge in AI revenues and ongoing integration efforts.

• Costco Wholesale Corp (COST): Costco is scheduled to release earnings with analysts expecting an EPS of $4.08, a 9.97% increase and revenue of approximately $63.02 billion, up 7.84% compared to the same quarter last year. Investors will closely monitor membership growth, e-commerce sales acceleration, and comparable sales trends to assess the company’s resilience amid economic conditions. Despite a challenging economic environment, Costco’s strong financial performance could continue to support its stock, which has seen a significant gain of about 35% over the past year.

We hope this helps and happy trading!

– Trade and Travel Team