The major U.S. indexes broke their four-week losing streaks last week, with the SPY (S&P 500) gaining 0.21%, QQQ (Nasdaq) rising 0.25%, and DIA (Dow Jones) climbing 1.03% – its largest weekly increase in two months.

Markets rebounded after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision to keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% while still projecting two rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell cautioned that tariffs could slow the progress on lowering inflation, while President Trump’s comments suggesting “flexibility” on April 2 tariffs helped boost sentiment, though he maintained they would be reciprocal. On Friday, the quarterly ‘triple witching’ event took place, with approximately $4.5 trillion in options contracts expiring at the same time, adding to market volatility and potentially impacting market dynamics.

Notable corporate moves last week included Boeing’s surge after winning the F-47 fighter jet contract, while Nike and FedEx tumbled following downward revisions to their forecasts, citing economic uncertainty as President Trump imposes tariffs on trading partners.

Looking ahead, investors should monitor March PMI data releasing Monday, along with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Friday. Notable earnings reports include KB Home, GameStop, Dollar Tree, and Lululemon, which should provide insights into consumer spending trends amid persistent inflation concerns.

📅 Monday, Mar 24th

• Flash Manufacturing PMI: The upcoming Flash Manufacturing PMI report is forecasted at 51.9, suggesting continued expansion in the manufacturing sector but slightly below February’s 52.7 reading, indicating a potential moderation in growth momentum. Investors and traders should closely monitor key components such as new orders, which previously rose for three consecutive months, production output, which recently showed significant growth, and input costs, which have experienced sharp increases. These factors will provide crucial insights into the sector’s resilience and potential challenges ahead.

• Flash Services PMI: The upcoming Flash Services PMI report is forecasted to show a slight improvement to 51.2, marginally up from February’s reading of 51.0, indicating continued but modest expansion in the U.S. services sector amid persistent economic uncertainties related to government policy and trade tariffs. Investors and traders should closely monitor any signs of shifting employment trends, as the previous report revealed companies reduced their headcounts for the first time in three months, alongside examining the report’s business sentiment indicators which recently fell to their lowest level since September 2024.

📅 Thursday, Mar 27th

• Final GDP q/q: The upcoming Final GDP q/q report for Q4 2024 is forecasted at 2.4%, representing a potential upward revision from the second estimate of 2.3% and indicating stronger economic momentum than previously reported. Investors and traders should focus on possible revisions to consumer spending (which drove 4.2% growth in the previous estimate), fixed investment (which contracted 1.4%), and government expenditures (which rose 2.9%), as these components frequently reveal underlying economic strength or weakness. A final GDP figure meeting the 2.4% forecast would likely strengthen the US dollar against other currencies and impact equity markets, while still representing a deceleration from the 3.1% growth recorded in Q3 2024

• Unemployment Claims: The upcoming weekly Unemployment Claims report, forecasted at 225k initial claims, represents a slight increase from the previous week’s 223k and will offer insights into whether the labor market remains resilient amid ongoing trade tensions and government spending cuts. Investors should closely monitor the four-week moving average, currently at 227k, as this metric provides a clearer trend indication by smoothing out weekly volatility. Continuing claims, which recently rose to 1.892 million, will be another critical indicator to watch as elevated levels suggest job seekers are facing difficulties finding employment, potentially influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions regarding future interest rate adjustments.

📅 Friday, Mar 28th

• Core PCE Price Index m/m: The upcoming Core PCE Price Index m/m report is expected to rise by 0.3%, matching February’s increase, and suggests inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target. Investors and traders should closely monitor whether the actual figure comes in below the 0.3% forecast, which could strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to implement another interest rate cut from the current 4.25%-4.50% range. Market participants should closely monitor healthcare services inflation, which is a significant category in the core PCE calculation and influences the overall index reading, particularly as it continues to trend upward.

Here are some stocks reporting earnings this week:

📅 Monday, Mar 24th

• KB Home (KBH) will report its earnings with analysts projecting revenue of $1.5 billion (up 2.2% year-over-year) and EPS of approximately $1.59 (down 9.6% from the prior-year period). Investors should monitor KBH’s housing revenue guidance of $1.45-1.55 billion, the impact of incentives on profit margins, and the performance of their built-to-order model which represented over 60% of deliveries in its last earnings report. With the housing market facing macroeconomic headwinds affecting demand, particular attention should be paid to KBH’s average selling price (previously $501,000), delivery numbers, and any adjustments to their full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $7-7.5 billion.

📅 Tuesday, Mar 25th

• GameStop (GME) is set to report its earnings after market close on Tuesday, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.08 (down 63.63% year-over-year) and revenue of $1.48 billion (down 17.45% year-over-year). Investors should monitor whether GameStop can beat earnings estimates as it did last quarter when it reported EPS of $0.06 versus the expected -$0.03, while also watching for management commentary on the company’s strategic direction given its current high P/E ratio.

📅 Wednesday, Mar 26th

• Dollar Tree (DLTR) is scheduled to release its earnings with analysts expecting revenues of $8.24 billion (down 4.6% year-over-year) and earnings per share of $2.20 (representing a 13.7% decline from the year-ago period). Investors should closely monitor updates on the company’s strategic review of its underperforming Family Dollar segment, which could include a potential sale or spinoff, as well as progress on the planned closure of approximately 970 stores. Additionally, traders should pay attention to same-store sales growth metrics and management’s guidance for the next quarter, as the company continues to face challenges from higher selling and administrative expenses, inflationary pressures, and reduced discretionary spending among low-income consumers.

📅 Thursday, Mar 27th

• Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is set to release its earnings report, with Wall Street expecting EPS of $5.87 (representing an 11.1% year-over-year increase) on revenues of $3.59 billion (up 12.1% from the year-ago quarter), which could potentially move the stock higher if these numbers exceed expectations. Investors should pay close attention to the performance disparity between regions, as international sales surged 33% last quarter while America’s sales grew just 2%, a trend that could continue to influence overall results amid the company’s ambitious Power of Three ×2 growth plan. With LULU stock down from $423 in January to around $325 in March (a 23%+ decline), market watchers will be keenly focused on management’s guidance for the upcoming fiscal year, particularly regarding inventory management and gross margin outlook, as these metrics could provide crucial insights into the company’s ability to navigate the challenging retail landscape and potentially reverse the recent stock price decline.

We hope this helps and happy trading!

– Trade and Travel Team