Last week, the market experienced a notable downturn, with the SPY (S&P 500) falling 3.07%, the QQQ (NASDAQ) dropping 3.22%, and the DIA (Dow Jones) declining 2.31%.

The downturn was largely driven by ongoing uncertainties over U.S. trade policies and economic indicators signaling growing concerns about inflation and consumer sentiment. On March 6, Trump announced a delay on certain tariffs affecting imports from Canada and Mexico until April 2, but this did little to assuage market fears regarding the broader implications of his trade strategies.

On inflation and consumer sentiment, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index decreased to 2.6% year-over-year, still surpassing the Fed’s 2% target. Additionally, the February Consumer Confidence Index experienced its steepest monthly decline since August 2021, further contributing to market unease by reflecting growing consumer pessimism.

Next week’s economic reports will center around critical inflation data and consumer sentiment indicators, which are pivotal in shaping market expectations and Federal Reserve policy. Here are the key reports to watch:

📅 Tuesday, Mar 11th

• JOLTS Job Openings: The upcoming JOLTS Job Openings report is forecasted to show 7.71 million openings for January, a slight increase from December’s 7.6 million, signaling a potential stabilization in labor demand. Investors and traders should watch for deviations from this estimate, as a figure above 8 million could bolster the U.S. dollar by reducing expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts, while a drop below 7.5 million might fuel concerns about economic slowdown. Key details within the report, like hires (previously 5.5 million) and quits (3.2 million), will also offer insights into labor market dynamics and inflationary pressures.

📅 Wednesday, Mar 12th

• Core CPI m/m: The Core CPI month-over-month report is forecasted at 0.3%, down from January’s 0.4%, indicating a potential moderation in inflation excluding food and energy. Investors and traders should watch for surprises, as a reading above 0.4% could amplify existing inflation concerns. A decline below 0.2% might suggest softening demand, increasing expectations for a Fed rate cut in June.

• CPI m/m: The CPI month-over-month report is forecasted at 0.3%, down from January’s 0.5%, hinting at a cooling in overall price growth including food and energy. Investors and traders should focus on deviations, as a rise above 0.4% could intensify inflation worries and a drop below 0.2% could ease rate hike fears.
  
• CPI y/y: The CPI year-over-year report is forecasted at 2.9%, slightly below January’s 3.0%, pointing to a small slowdown in yearly price increases. Investors and traders should look for surprises, as a rise above 3.1% could fuel inflation worries and a drop below 2.7% might raise hopes that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates.

📅 Thursday, Mar 13th

• Core PPI m/m: The Core PPI month-over-month report is forecasted at 0.3%, matching January’s 0.3%, indicating steady wholesale inflation excluding food and energy. Investors and traders should watch for unexpected shifts, as a rise above 0.4% could signal growing cost pressures and a dip below 0.2% might ease worries about price increases.

• PPI m/m: The PPI month-over-month report is forecasted at 0.3%, down from January’s 0.4%, suggesting a slight cooling in wholesale price growth including food and energy. Investors and traders should monitor for surprises, as a jump above 0.4% could heighten inflation concerns, and a fall below 0.2% might calm fears of rising costs.
  
• Unemployment Claims: The Initial Jobless Claims report is forecasted at 226,000 for the week, up slightly from the prior week’s 221,000, hinting at a modest rise in layoffs. Investors and traders should watch for surprises, as a spike above 235,000 could signal labor market weakness and a drop below 215,000 might boost confidence in job growth.

📅 Friday, Mar 14th

• Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: The Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is forecasted at 63.8 for March, down from February’s revised 64.7 (originally 67.8), reflecting growing consumer unease after a sharp drop from January’s 71.7. Investors and traders should watch for surprises, as a decline below 62 could deepen worries about tariff-driven price hikes and inflation. A rise above 66 might ease fears, signaling steady confidence and potentially lifting the SPY amid volatile markets.

• Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: The Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations report will be scrutinized for signs of whether February’s spike represents a temporary shock or a sustained shift in consumer psychology. With tariffs driving up food and energy prices, and political views influencing public opinion, policymakers face a challenge. They must manage a situation where actual inflation and people’s expectations of it may start to diverge. Investors should monitor not only the headline expectation figures but also underlying components like gasoline and shelter costs, which disproportionately drive consumer anxiety. A March reading above 4.5% could trigger aggressive Fed action, while a decline below 4.0% may signal easing pressures—though both scenarios remain contingent on geopolitical developments and supply chain resilience.

Here are some stocks to watch that are reporting earnings this week:

📅 Monday, Mar 10th

• Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Oracle is set to report its earnings with analysts forecasting an 8.36% revenue increase to $14.39 billion, propelled by its cloud infrastructure segment. Investors and traders should watch for sustained cloud momentum, especially AI-driven demand tied to the Stargate data center initiative with OpenAI and SoftBank along with updates on potential bookings critical to its $433.98 billion market cap. Earnings per share are projected at $1.49, a 5.67% rise from last year’s $1.41, making profitability and cost management key metrics amid competition from AWS and Azure.

📅 Tuesday, Mar 11th

• Casey’s General Stores (CASY): Casey’s is set to report its earnings, with analysts currently projecting an EPS of $2.03, following the company’s strong performance in its last earnings report, which delivered $3.95 billion in revenue. Investors should focus on the continued performance of Casey’s high-margin prepared food and dispensed beverage segment, which helped drive the overall inside same-store sales increase of 4.0%. Additionally, they should monitor the integration progress of the recently completed acquisition of 198 CEFCO convenience stores. With total inside gross profit increasing 12.0% to $619.7 million, along with improvements in operational efficiency—evidenced by a 1% reduction in same-store labor hours—the key question will be whether Casey’s can maintain this momentum in what is traditionally a seasonally weaker quarter.

📅 Wednesday, Mar 12th

• Adobe (ADBE): Adobe will release its earnings on Wednesday, after market close, with analysts closely watching whether the company can exceed its guidance of $4.95-$5.00 non-GAAP EPS on $5.63-$5.68 billion in revenue. Despite consistently beating earnings estimates for four consecutive quarters, the stock dropped 7% after its last report due to disappointing annual guidance. Investors should focus on Adobe’s AI monetization clarity, progress toward its full-year targets of $20.35 EPS on $23.43 billion revenue, and its strategy for addressing the approximately $200 million revenue headwind from foreign exchange effects that could impact its projected 11% Digital Media ARR growth for fiscal 2025.

📅 Thursday, Mar 12th

• Kingstone Companies (KINS): Kingstone is set to release its earnings report following a strong preliminary performance that included a 37% increase in direct written premiums and a consolidated GAAP combined ratio of 79% for the quarter. Investors should look for confirmation of these preliminary results, particularly the operating income per diluted share, which more than tripled to $0.46 from $0.15 in the same quarter last year. As the market expects a year-over-year increase in earnings, traders will closely monitor how actual results compare to consensus estimates, which could significantly impact the stock’s price movement.

We hope this helps and happy trading!

– Trade and Travel Team