Wall Street posted modest gains last week as investors positioned themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy meeting. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) advanced 1.57% for the week, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ ETF (QQQ) climbed 1.84%, and the Dow Jones ETF (DIA) gained 0.95%.

Employment data weighed heavily on market sentiment, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing. Weekly unemployment claims jumped to 263,000, well above forecasts. This labor market softening, along with the nonfarm payrolls report showing just 22,000 jobs added versus expectations for 75,000, bolstered bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut at its September 17 meeting. Futures markets now assign a 93.4% probability to at least a 25-basis-point reduction, with some speculating a more aggressive 50-point move.

Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) print added complexity to the Fed’s decision. Headline inflation accelerated to 2.9% year-over-year in August, while the monthly CPI rose 0.4%, marking the largest increase since January. Core inflation held at 3.1%, with higher goods prices and rising shelter costs contributing to the uptick. Although inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, many analysts believe labor market concerns will carry more weight.

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, concluding on Wednesday with Chair Jerome Powell’s announcement and press conference.

Market participants will scrutinize the updated Summary of Economic Projections for clues on the path of future rate cuts. Friday brings Quadruple Witching, when stock index futures, options, and single-stock derivatives expire simultaneously, often fueling volatility and volume.

📅 Tuesday, Sep 16th

• Core Retail Sales (m/m) and Retail Sales (m/m): The August report is expected to show core retail sales rising from 0.3% to 0.4%. By excluding volatile categories such as autos, gas, and food services, this measure provides a clearer view of underlying consumer demand, which accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP.
  
  In contrast, headline retail sales are forecasted to slow from 0.5% to 0.2%, signaling weaker overall spending momentum. Both figures will be closely monitored, as deviations from expectations often trigger volatility in equities, bond yields, and USD currency pairs. The Federal Reserve pays particular attention to these releases, with any meaningful surprise likely to shape interest rate expectations and broader market sentiment.

📅 Wednesday, Sep 17th

• Federal Funds Rate: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver its first rate cut of 2025 at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.25–4.50% to 4.00–4.25%, representing a 25 basis point decrease. Markets are pricing in a 93.4% probability of this move, with futures implying about 75 basis points of total easing this year. Attention will also be on any dissenting votes, since two governors already favored cuts at the July meeting, as that could reveal internal divisions over how aggressively to ease policy.

• FOMC Economic Projections & Statement: Alongside the decision, the Fed will release its Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. Three metrics will be central: the median federal funds rate projection for year-end 2025 at 3.9% (implying two cuts), PCE inflation revised in June to 3.0% from 2.7%, and the unemployment forecast lifted to 4.5% from 4.4%. Investors will look for whether officials maintain their two-cut outlook or move closer to the three cuts markets anticipate, and will also parse the statement for guidance on balance sheet runoff, GDP growth revisions, and the projected terminal rate.

• FOMC Press Conference: Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks will be closely parsed for signals on how flexible the Fed is in managing risks from a softening labor market and tariff-driven inflation. His tone on financial conditions and balance sheet policy will be key for gauging the Fed’s confidence in its easing path. The Q&A session may also reveal whether Powell leaves the door open to a faster pace of cuts than the two implied by the current projections.

📅 Thursday, Sep 18th

• Unemployment Claims: Initial claims are expected to fall to 245k from the prior 263k, which was higher than forecast, when the Department of Labor releases its weekly report on Thursday. Market participants will watch closely to see if actual claims come in below the 245k estimate, as that would reinforce expectations of a tight labor market and could push Treasury yields higher. Traders should also monitor any regional or industry-specific divergences in the data, since unexpected upticks could spark equity volatility and alter Fed rate expectations.

💼 Although the peak of earnings season has passed, there are still several name-brand companies reporting this week.

📅 Wednesday, Sep 17th

• General Mills, Inc. (GIS): General Mills is set to report its first‐quarter fiscal 2026 results, with a forecast of adjusted EPS of $0.81 on revenues of $4.52 billion, down from $1.07 and $4.85 billion in the year-ago quarter. Market participants should watch the impact of June’s North American yogurt divestiture, which is expected to trim roughly 4% from Q1 net sales, as well as volume trends in North America Retail versus continued growth in the Pet and International segments. Key margin drivers include input cost inflation and the company’s full-year FY26 outlook for organic sales of down 1% to up 1% and adjusted EPS guidance of down 10–15%, which will be crucial for assessing management’s strategy execution and fiscal visibility.
  
  
• Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL): Cracker Barrel Old Country Store will release Q4 FY2025 results, with analysts forecasting adjusted EPS of $0.77, a 21.4% year-over-year decline, on revenue of $855.36 million, down 4.36% from the prior year.
  
  Market participants should scrutinize comparable-store sales, where restaurant comps grew 1.0% alongside menu pricing increases of 4.9%, while retail comps contracted 3.8%. Attention to segment revenues will be key, as Wall Street projects retail sales of $151.00 million (-7.2% year-over-year) and restaurant sales of $692.82 million (-2.8% year-over-year). Finally, management’s updated guidance, with full-year revenue of $3.45 billion to $3.50 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $215 million to $225 million, will be pivotal in gauging the company’s outlook.

📅 Thursday, Sep 18th

• Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI): Darden Restaurants is scheduled to release its results, with analysts expecting earnings per share of $2.00, up 14.2% year over year, on revenue of $3.04 billion, a 10.1% increase from the prior year. Market participants will be watching closely for comparable-restaurant sales performance, as management has guided 2.0–3.5% same-store sales growth for the full fiscal year.
  
  A particular focus will be on Olive Garden, which posted a robust 6.9% comp growth in Q4, alongside LongHorn Steakhouse’s 6.7%, helping drive total same-restaurant sales growth of 4.6%. Darden has also projected 7–8% total sales growth for FY 2026 and EPS of $10.50–$10.70, supported by plans to open 60–65 new restaurants.
  
  Market participants should also note the company’s shareholder returns strategy, highlighted by a $1 billion share repurchase authorization and a dividend increase to $1.50 per share.
  
  
• Lennar Corporation (LEN): Lennar is scheduled to report third-quarter results, with analysts expecting earnings of $2.10 per share on revenue of approximately $8.97 billion, representing a 48.6% year-over-year decline in EPS and a 4.7% revenue drop compared to Q3 2024.
  
  Market participants should focus on the company’s guidance for 22,000-23,000 home deliveries at an average sales price of $380,000-$385,000, alongside gross margins projected at 18% versus 22.5% in 2024. Key metrics to monitor include new order trends (also guided at 22,000-23,000 units) and Financial Services operating earnings expected between $175-180 million. The company’s strategy of using incentives like mortgage rate buydowns to drive volume while maintaining its “production-first” operating model will be critical to assess, given the challenging affordability environment.
  
  
• FedEx Corporation (FDX): FedEx is set to announce first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with a forecast expecting adjusted EPS of $3.65 (up 1.3% year-over-year) on revenues of $21.67 billion (rising 0.3%). Management’s update on the progress of the Network 2.0 integration and the DRIVE cost-reduction initiative, which aims to deliver $1 billion in structural savings. Market participants should watch the Express segment’s volume trends, particularly Asia-to-US, lanes where tariff headwinds could pressure unit revenues. Any revisions to the full-year capital expenditure guidance around $4.5 billion and commentary on free cash flow generation will offer insight into balance-sheet strength and financial flexibility.

We hope this helps and happy trading!

– Trade and Travel Team