The stock market experienced a significant downturn last week, with major indexes hitting six-month lows amid escalating economic concerns. The SPY (S&P 500) dropped by 2.28%, while the tech-heavy QQQ (Nasdaq) tumbled by 2.47%. Meanwhile, the DIA (Dow Jones) ended the week down 3.01%, closing lower on Friday.

The selloff was triggered by President Trump’s refusal to rule out a recession during his “period of transition” with new tariff policies. Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selloff at the start of the week, with Tesla plummeting 15.4%, Nvidia dropping 5%, and Palantir falling 10%. The entire “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, and META) traded lower, driving broader market anxiety.

By Friday, a relief rally helped offset some of the week’s earlier losses, though major indices and most noted companies still closed lower week-over-week, except for Nvidia and Palantir.

All eyes now turn to the Federal Reserve’s crucial policy meeting scheduled for March 18-19. Financial markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to maintain its benchmark rate at the current 4.25%-4.50% range. With that in mind, here are the other economic news releases this week:

📅 Monday, Mar 17th

• Core Retail Sales m/m: The upcoming report forecasts growth of 0.3%, which would signal a potential recovery following February’s disappointing contraction of -0.4%. Investors should monitor whether the actual figure beats the 0.3% projection, as a weaker reading might reignite concerns about economic momentum. Traders should also compare this data with broader Retail Sales figures and note that consumer spending drives more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, making this report particularly influential for market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy expectations in 2025.

• Retail Sales m/m: Economists forecast a significant rebound in U.S. retail sales for February with expectations of 0.6% month-over-month growth, following January’s disappointing -0.9% decline that marked the largest drop since March 2023. Investors should closely monitor key components including motor vehicle sales, which plummeted -2.8% in January, and nonstore retailers (primarily e-commerce) which fell -1.9% last month, as improvements in these sectors would signal stronger consumer confidence despite recent severe weather impacts.

📅 Wednesday, Mar 19th

• Federal Funds Rate: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at its current 4.25% to 4.50% range at next week’s meeting, with financial markets pricing in a 98% probability of no change amid persistent inflation concerns and relatively strong economic performance.

• FOMC Economic Projections: The upcoming report will reveal whether the Federal Reserve maintains its median GDP growth forecast of 2.1% for 2025 or revises it downward due to uncertainties from the new administration’s trade policies and potential inflation pressures.
  
  Investors and traders should closely monitor the updated Summary of Economic Projections, especially any revisions to the previous 3.9% federal funds rate forecast for 2025, and the projected path for interest rates, with markets expecting at least a half percentage point cut by year-end. Attention will also be on whether the FOMC maintains expectations for further cuts or signals a more cautious approach.

• FOMC Statement: Investors and traders should focus on changes in the Fed’s language regarding inflation which was characterized as “somewhat elevated” in the January statement.

• FOMC Press Conference: Market participants should closely monitor Chair Powell’s comments on Trump’s proposed tariffs that could potentially reignite inflation and any signals about whether June might be the earliest timeline for the first rate reduction of the year. Market participants should pay particular attention to Powell’s assessment of inflation expectations, labor market conditions, and consumer spending patterns, especially after February’s unemployment rate of 4.1% and recent indications of a possible moderation in consumer spending that could influence the Fed’s policy trajectory.

📅 Thursday, Mar 20th

• Unemployment Claims: The upcoming initial jobless claims report forecasts 222k new unemployment claims, a slight increase from the previous week’s 220k figure. The number aligns closely with the recent 4-week moving average of 226k, suggesting a relatively stable labor market despite fluctuations in February when claims peaked at 242k. Investors and traders should closely monitor whether the actual figure exceeds the forecast, as higher-than-expected claims could signal labor market weakness.

Here are some stocks to watch that are reporting earnings this week:

📅 Monday, Mar 17th

• Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC): Science Applications International Corporation is scheduled to report with analysts projecting earnings per share of $2.09 (a 46.15% increase from $1.43 year-over-year) and revenue of approximately $1.81 billion (representing a 4% growth from the previous year). Investors should scrutinize SAIC’s book-to-bill ratio, which registered at 0.7 last quarter with a trailing twelve-month ratio of 0.9, alongside the company’s approximately $22.4 billion backlog that provides revenue visibility.
  
  With SAIC shares having declined more than 30% since November 2024 amid federal budget uncertainty and fears that its contracts may come under scrutiny by the DOGE, traders should pay attention to management’s forward guidance and commentary on government spending trends, especially in the defense and intelligence technology sectors, where the company has been focusing its growth initiatives.

📅 Thursday, Mar 20th

• Micron Technology (MU): Micron Technology will report earnings with analysts expecting revenues of $7.92 billion (36% YoY growth) and non-GAAP EPS around $1.43, compared to $0.42 (a 240% growth) in the same quarter last year. In its previous earnings report, Micron delivered record revenue of $8.71 billion, with data center revenue growing over 40% sequentially and exceeding 50% of total revenue for the first time, demonstrating the company’s strong positioning in AI-driven memory solutions.
  
  Investors and traders should closely monitor Micron’s data center segment performance, DRAM pricing trends, and next quarter guidance amid near-term weakness in consumer markets, as management previously indicated expectations for growth resumption in the second half of its fiscal year.

• FedEx (FDX): FedEx is scheduled to report it earnings with analysts projecting revenue of $21.89 billion (up 0.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.64 (up 20.2% year-over-year). Investors and traders should closely monitor the progress of the DRIVE program, which delivered $540 million in cost savings last quarter, and international volume growth that could offset weakness in the U.S. domestic package and LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) markets.
  
  Additionally, watch for any revisions to FedEx’s full-year fiscal outlook, which was previously adjusted to expect flat year-over-year revenue, down from earlier projections of low single-digit growth.

• Lennar Corporation (LEN): Lennar will report earnings with analysts projecting EPS of $1.72 (down from $2.57 in Q1 2024) and revenue of $7.44 billion (representing a modest 1.7% year-over-year increase). The homebuilder has guided for 17,000-17,500 home deliveries with new orders expected between 17,500-18,000, as average sales prices are anticipated to range from $410,000-415,000 with gross margins of 19.0-19.25%.
  
  Investors and traders should closely monitor whether Lennar can maintain its volume despite housing market headwinds from inflation and high interest rates, along with any commentary on potential interest rate impacts and pricing strategies being used to drive affordability in the challenging economic environment.

We hope this helps and happy trading!

– Trade and Travel Team