U.S. equities delivered mixed results as investors weighed geopolitical risks against a solid start to Q2 earnings. The broader market held firm, with the SPY (S&P 500) climbing 0.64% for the week and the QQQ (NASDAQ-100) gaining 1.27%. In contrast, the DJIA lagged, with the DIA slipping 0.07%.

Earnings season added momentum, with about 83% of S&P 500 companies reporting results above consensus EPS estimates. Financials led the way, with JPMorgan Chase exceeding expectations by more than 17%, while U.S. Bancorp delivered a nearly 4% beat, reinforcing strength across bank stocks.

Markets showed resilience, with major indexes hitting record intraday highs on Thursday, powered by megacap tech strength and robust consumer spending data.

Looking ahead, attention turns to “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, with Alphabet and Tesla set to report, alongside updates from Verizon and Intel. In the absence of major surprises in earnings or trade policy, market direction will likely hinge on how investors interpret forward guidance and global developments.

📅 Thursday, Jul 24th

• Flash Manufacturing PMI: The upcoming flash U.S. manufacturing PMI report is forecasted at 52.7, representing a marginal decline from the previous reading of 52.9. This anticipated reading would still signal continued expansion in the manufacturing sector, as any value above 50 indicates growth compared to the previous month.
  
  Market participants should focus on three critical areas. First, whether the actual reading meets, beats, or falls short of the 52.7 consensus, since PMI data is one of the most market-moving indicators and can significantly influence currency, equity, and commodity markets. Second, the underlying components, such as new orders, which act as a leading indicator, employment levels that offer insight ahead of the official jobs report, and input costs that may point to inflationary trends. Third, any commentary on tariff-related inventory building or supply chain disruptions, as these have been key drivers of recent PMI volatility and could signal whether the current expansion is sustainable or short-lived.

• Flash Services PMI: The upcoming Flash Services PMI report is expected to show a reading of 53.0, representing a slight uptick from the previous month’s final reading of 52.9. This anticipated improvement would maintain the services sector’s expansion trajectory above the critical 50.0 threshold, with readings above 50 signaling growth and the forecast suggesting continued economic momentum in the dominant services sector that comprises over two-thirds of the US economy.
  
  Market participants should focus on three key components in the flash report. New orders growth can signal future demand, employment levels directly influence Federal Reserve policy, and price pressures shape inflation expectations and rate decisions. The gap between the actual reading and the 53.0 consensus will be critical. Readings above 55 often point to strong economic expansion, while those below 50 suggest contraction. Both outcomes are likely to trigger immediate moves across different markets.

• Unemployment Claims: The upcoming unemployment claims report is forecast at 229,000 initial claims, representing an 8,000 increase from last week’s better-than-expected reading of 221,000. Market participants should focus on whether the actual number exceeds the 229,000 forecast, as this would signal potential softening in the labor market after five consecutive weeks of declining claims.
  
  Key metrics to monitor include the four-week moving average, which currently sits at 229,500 (down from 235,750), and continuing claims at 1.956 million, which remain near three-year highs and indicate that unemployed workers are facing longer periods without employment. Any reading significantly above 235,000 could trigger market concerns about labor market deterioration, while a lower-than-expected figure would reinforce the view of a resilient economy despite recent Federal Reserve policy uncertainty.

💼 Earnings season is now in full swing. Here are some of the key early movers reporting this week:

📅 Monday, Jul 21st

• Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ): Verizon is set to report its second-quarter 2025 earnings with consensus estimates calling for earnings per share of $1.18-$1.20 and revenue of approximately $33.74 billion, reflecting 2.8% year-over-year growth.
  
  Market participants should watch for key performance metrics, including wireless service revenue growth (company guidance of 2.0-3.5% for 2025), subscriber additions across postpaid and broadband segments after Q1’s mixed results with 356,000 postpaid phone net losses, and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion amid ongoing promotional pressures and infrastructure investments.

📅 Tuesday, Jul 22nd

• SAP SE (SAP): SAP will report its Q2 2025 results with analysts forecasting earnings of $1.66 per share and revenue of $10.50 billion, representing roughly 16.7% year-over-year growth. Market participants will zero in on constant-currency cloud revenue growth, guided at 26–28% for the full year, and current cloud backlog expansion, with Q1 backlog up 29% and expectations of 27–29% growth in Q2 to validate the company’s cloud transition momentum. Additionally, non-IFRS (non-International Financial Reporting Standards) operating margin near 26.8% and management’s commentary on AI-driven services, particularly early uptake of SAP Business Data Cloud and its Databricks partnership, will set the tone for the stock’s post-earnings move.

• Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT): Lockheed Martin is set to report Q2 results, with consensus estimates calling for earnings of $6.52 per share (down 8.3% YoY from $7.11) on revenue of $18.57 billion (up 2.5% YoY).
  
  Market participants should scrutinize segment performance. Aeronautics revenue is forecast at $7.34 billion, Missiles & Fire Control $3.34 billion, Rotary & Mission Systems $4.65 billion and Space $3.23 billion, to assess the impact of F-35 production ramps and missile volume growth. Additionally, watch for discussion around lower ULA (United Launch Alliance) equity earnings, any margin pressures, and updates to full-year EPS guidance of $27.00–27.30 for directional cues.

📅 Wednesday, Jul 23rd

• Tesla (TSLA): Tesla is set to report Q2 2025 results, with Wall Street forecasting revenue of approximately $22.42 billion (down about 12% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $0.40 (down roughly 23% YoY). Market participants should watch for vehicle deliveries near 384,122 units (a 13.5% decline YoY), automotive gross margin around 16.4%, and energy storage deployments of about 9.6 GWh.
  
  Key will be any update on full-year guidance, especially in light of evolving trade policies and macro uncertainties lingering from Q1. Equally important is commentary on Elon Musk’s deepening political entanglements, most notably his announcement of a new “America Party,” which has already spooked shareholders and contributed to a roughly 7% dip in Tesla’s stock. Market participants should gauge how Musk addresses potential regulatory headwinds and brand sentiment shifts arising from his high-profile U.S. and German political forays.

• Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG): Chipotle will release its Q2 2025 results after the market closes. Market participants will be watching the consensus EPS of $0.33 (a 2.9% year-over-year decline) alongside revenue of approximately $3.11 billion, up 4.7% year-over-year. Market participants should pay close attention to comparable restaurant sales trends (estimated down 2.8%), the trajectory of digital-channel sales, and the pace of unit expansion (around 65 new restaurants) as key indicators of growth momentum.

• Alphabet Inc. (Google): Alphabet will report second-quarter 2025 results with Wall Street projecting total revenue of approximately $93.92 billion, up 10.8% year over year, and earnings per share around $2.18 compared with $1.89 a year ago. Market participants should focus on Google Search and Other revenues, expected near $52.8 billion with a 9% increase year over year, and Google Cloud revenue, forecast at about $13.1 billion with a 26% increase year over year. Management’s commentary on AI-driven margin expansion and regulatory headwinds from upcoming antitrust rulings will also be key.

📅 Thursday, Jul 24th

• American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL): American Airlines is set to release its Q2 2025 results with analysts forecasting revenue of $14.29 billion (–0.28% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $0.78 (–28.4% year-over-year). Market participants should focus on any deviations from these estimates, particularly in unit revenue trends, given Q1 domestic passenger RASM fell 0.7% despite a 0.7% uptick in systemwide PRASM, and monitor operating margin and free cash flow guidance in light of the withdrawn full-year outlook. Capacity growth plans (2–4% for Q2), international versus domestic RASM divergence, and ex-fuel unit cost changes will also be critical indicators of demand resilience and cost management effectiveness going forward.

We hope this helps and happy trading!

– Trade and Travel Team