Wall Street staged a dramatic reversal last week, with the SPY (S&P 500) surging 5.67%, the QQQ (Nasdaq) rallying 7.51%, and the DIA (Dow Jones) climbing 4.88%, erasing early losses fueled by U.S.-China trade tensions.

The week began with markets reeling after Trump retaliated against China’s countermeasures by imposing an additional 50% tariff, bringing the total to 104%. This move sent the QQQ into bear-market territory, down 25.59% from its peak. However, President Trump’s Wednesday announcement of a 90-day pause on new tariffs triggered a historic mid-week rebound, culminating in Thursday’s 9.52% single-day surge in the S&P 500, the index’s third-largest gain since 1945.

This week, market participants face critical tests as they assess the sustainability of the recent rally. Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report confirmed that inflation eased, aligning with Federal Reserve targets and supporting expectations for a more dovish policy stance. However, attention now shifts to the upcoming retail sales data, projected to show a 1.4% monthly increase, and to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which will be scrutinized for any hints of policy shifts and interest rate direction.

📅 Wednesday, April 16th

• Core Retail Sales m/m: The upcoming report, forecasted at 0.4% growth compared to the previous month’s 0.3% increase, will provide critical insight into consumer spending patterns, which account for approximately 70% of US GDP.
  
  Market participants should closely monitor whether the actual figure exceeds the 0.4% forecast. It would be a good idea to compare this month’s data against the longer trend showing fluctuating results over recent months (ranging from -0.4% to 0.4%), paying particular attention to specific retail categories such as ecommerce and general merchandise, which have recently shown resilience even during periods of overall retail weakness.

• Retail Sales m/m: The upcoming report is expected to show a robust 1.4% month-over-month increase, significantly outpacing February’s modest 0.2% gain and potentially reversing January’s revised 1.2% decline.
  
  Forecasters attribute this anticipated surge primarily to front-running tariff price increases that accelerated sales of durable goods, particularly in the automotive sector. Market participants should closely monitor whether consumer spending momentum can be sustained amid lingering inflation concerns and tariff-induced price pressures, especially since the National Retail Federation recently projected annual retail growth of 2.7% to 3.7% for 2025, with expectations that GDP growth will decline to just below 2% from 2.8% in 2024.

• Fed Chair Powell Speaks: In his upcoming address, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely provide updated assessments on inflation and unemployment, focusing on whether these metrics remain above the Fed’s 2% target despite recent market volatility.
  
  Market participants should carefully monitor Powell’s language regarding the economic impact of President Trump’s tariff policies, which he previously warned could simultaneously raise inflation and lower growth, potentially creating a challenging “stagflation” scenario that complicates the Fed’s dual mandate. You should pay close attention to any signals about the timing of potential interest rate adjustments, as Powell recently stated the Fed is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity” before making policy changes, suggesting the central bank may maintain its current 4.25%-4.50% benchmark rate range until the economic effects of new trade policies become more apparent.

📅 Thursday, April 17th

• Unemployment Claims: The upcoming initial jobless claims report is forecast at 225k, slightly above the previous week’s 223k, with investors watching closely for signs of deterioration in the historically tight labor market despite ongoing federal workforce reductions by DOGE. Traders should monitor the four-week moving average (currently 223k) and continuing claims (last at 1.85 million) for better insight into overall labor market health. Any significant deviation from the forecast could impact market expectations for monetary policy, with readings above 230k potentially signaling weakness that could pressure equities, while figures below 220k would indicate unexpected resilience that might boost risk assets.

Here are some stocks reporting earnings this week:

📅 Monday, April 14th

• Goldman Sachs (GS) is set to report its earnings with analysts expecting EPS of $12.32 (a 6.4% year-over-year increase) on revenue of $14.77 billion, following their strong Q4 2024 performance where they reported EPS of $11.95 and net revenues of $13.87 billion.
  
  Market participants should closely monitor the performance of Goldman’s Global Banking & Markets segment, which accounted for approximately 61% of total revenue last quarter ($8.48 billion), especially given the bank’s 14% year-to-date stock decline amid concerns about continued slowdown in investment banking activity and uncertain economic conditions. Particular attention should be paid to investment banking revenues, equity and FICC (Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities) trading performances, and any forward guidance on the firm’s ability to meet its medium-term target of 14-16% ROE in 2025.

📅 Tuesday, April 15th

• United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is set to release its earnings with analysts expecting a significant turnaround in profitability as consensus estimates project EPS of $0.74, compared to a loss of $0.15 in the same quarter last year.
  
  Market participants should closely monitor revenue growth, anticipated to reach approximately $13.23 billion (representing a 5.5% year-over-year increase), as well as management’s commentary on forward guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2025, where full-year EPS is expected to grow to $12.54, up 18.2% from 2024. UAL stock has already outperformed both the Industrial sector and broader market with over 50% gain over the past 52 weeks, so traders should pay particular attention to whether the company maintains its impressive streak of beating earnings estimates, having surpassed bottom-line expectations in each of the previous four quarters.

📅 Wednesday, April 16th

• Abbott Laboratories (ABT) will release its earnings report with analysts expecting EPS of $1.07, representing a 9.2% increase from $0.98 in the year-ago quarter, and projected revenue of $10.4 billion, indicating a 4.4% year-over-year increase.
  
  Market participants should closely monitor performance in the Medical Devices segment, which has been a significant growth driver with 14.0% organic growth in the last quarter, particularly focusing on continued momentum in Diabetes Care and Structural Heart businesses that each grew more than 20% last quarter. With Abbott projecting full-year 2025 organic sales growth of 7.5%-8.5% and adjusted diluted EPS of $5.05-$5.25 (reflecting double-digit growth at the midpoint), this earnings report will be crucial for assessing whether the company maintains the strong momentum it demonstrated in Q4 2024 when both sales growth and EPS growth were at their highest levels of the year.

📅 Thursday, April 17th

• UnitedHealth Group (UNH) will report its earnings with analysts expecting EPS of $7.30 and revenues of approximately $111.17 billion, compared to the $6.81 EPS and $100.81 billion revenue posted in Q4 2024. Investors should closely monitor the company’s Medical Care Ratio (targeted at approximately 86.5%), Medicare Advantage enrollment (expected to reach 8.4-8.45 million in 2025), and whether management reaffirms its full-year 2025 guidance of $450-455 billion in revenue and $29.50-$30.00 in adjusted EPS.
  
  UNH’s stock has gained approximately 18.5% year-to-date and 36% over the past twelve months, outperforming the S&P 500, with future performance likely hinging on the company’s ability to deliver on its projected $32-33 billion in operating cash flow for 2025 while navigating healthcare cost pressures.

• Netflix (NFLX) will report its earnings with analysts projecting revenue of $10.5 billion (up 12% year-over-year) and earnings per share of approximately $5.70, representing a 7.9% increase from the $5.28 per share reported in the same quarter last year.
  
  Market participants should monitor operating margins, forecast at 28.2% for the quarter, as content spending escalates to $18 billion annually amid live sports investments like NFL and WWE programming, while scrutinizing the ad-supported tier’s impact, which now accounts for nearly half of new sign-ups. Despite ceasing quarterly subscriber reporting, Netflix’s focus on revenue durability and engagement metrics—bolstered by returning franchises like Squid Game and Stranger Things—will test its ability to maintain a 29% full-year operating margin target amid macroeconomic pressures.

We hope this helps and happy trading!

– Trade and Travel Team